A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
