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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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